While other folks took real holidays and didn’t commit a particle of thought to their vacated work environs, your humble FSN Editor kept his mind mostly in the game. Hard not to—wherever he goes (including the gym) he runs into some industry folks and kibitzes about the latest hoo-ha. And there’s plenty of that on tap for 2009, so it seems.
But your humble Editor won’t speculate on closings or other catastrophes-in-waiting until he or his spies verify the facts. It was reported during the holiday break that Three Fish in Minneapolis shut its doors. That could be one of many bars and restaurants in the early part of the year, said one fella in-the-know to the Editor, as liquor license fees become due.
Still, it’s an odd one out there. The Editor yakked with FSN columnist and consulting chef Jonathan Locke, who is currently managing the kitchen at Mairin’s Table in Northeast Minneapolis. The holiday break was “weird,” he said, alternating between crazy busy and dead. The steady foot-traffic trickle between the two extremes is gone, according to Locke and some other folks.
What to make of it? It’s anyone’s guess. Economic geeks out there are pointing long fingers at the big banks, that, now flush with government cash, aren’t doling out like they’ve been asked to grease the recovery gears. Some of those geeks are also beginning to point fingers at consumers who are holding out on buying stuff, waiting for the really great deal—an act that cumulatively leads to deflation. The latter accusation is a tough pill to swallow. While the Editor is thankfully still employed, and technically still able to spend his paycheck as he would before the economic collapse, his comfort level to dole it out has ebbed (after all, he’s married to a school teacher whose district of employ is facing a $4 million deficit, and tenured staff is on the chopping block). He makes his choices, pads his meager savings account and its meager .0002 percent interest rate.
But he still goes out to eat, which is a much more satisfying experience to him than any flat screen, digital television could provide. But he doesn’t do it as casually as he once did, thereby adding to the evaporation of the steady-trickle business mentioned above. He picks his evening out and packs a lunch. This is what many people are doing. Restaurants are adapting to this trend, cutting hours or eliminating lunch service altogether.
It’s important for restaurateurs to make calls like that, and the successful operators are making them as an offensive move, rather than down the line as a defensive measure when the ship is listing. Mairin’s Table in Northeast Minneapolis lopped lunch from the schedule a good while back, seeing the writing on the wall, and is taking the money they’re not losing to spend on the dinner menu which, based on a very good meal the Editor recently ate there, is an investment that will pay off both immediately and into the coming year. Nick and Eddie in Minneapolis also lopped lunch for the winter—which caused momentary trauma to the Editor, but it’s a smart business move.
It wasn’t long ago that the viral-like expansion of chain restaurants where independent eateries once stood was the topic du jour. The new topic for these times is the independent operator’s adaptability, and therefore their advantage versus chains in 2009.
While this appears to be a big dip in the road, like all dips, this one, too, shall pass.
—Mike Mitchelson, editor, Foodservice News
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